Supreme Court Line-Up

Yesterday's oral arguments in the union dues cases before the Supreme Court lead one to believe that the Washington State Supreme Court's decision will be overturned and the 1992 state law requiring opt-in provisions for non-union members restored. The likely breakdown of the nine justices in an opinion that may take five months to surface are as follows:

Majority (opt-in): Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy, Alito, Thomas (although he didn't speak)

Minority (opt-out): Breyer

On the Fence: Stevens, Souter Ginsberg

Altogether, this is at minimum a 5-4 decision in favor of opt-in, with the potential for an 8-1 or even unanimous decision if Justice Breyer (a reasonable man by all accounts) can be persuaded.

Stay tuned for commentary on the decision as it emerges.